Forum Posts by : justin lee (Forum Member)

Justin Lee

HK, Hong Kong

Posts: 16

15 years ago

Aug 31, 2009 4:44

In Thread: Yen's Path of Least Resistance

From my point of view, BoJ will be unlikely to intervene. Since Jun 2004, the central bank hadn't intervene the fx market even USD/JPY hit 87 level in Jan this year. Besides, the new government will mainly focus on household rather than corporate; thus, the JPY apprecation might not trigger the concern as much as LDP.

91.73 seems to be the next target.

I love Ashraf Laidi's idea of JPY appecication in Aug for the past 11 years (except 06 and 08), and USD/JPY usually hit the top at the beginning of each month since Apri.

Justin Lee

HK, Hong Kong

Posts: 16

15 years ago

Aug 16, 2009 0:36

In Thread: Where will USDJPY close by end of August?

I vote for 93.00

Anyone can share more information about the bond redemptions for Japan? Thanks!

Justin Lee

HK, Hong Kong

Posts: 16

15 years ago

Apr 30, 2009 14:18

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

VOTE:$1.43

I believe that 2-month cycle. When risk aversion picks up, USD is likely to extend the rally, and GBP may retreat to the 1.43 level. Besides, BoE's QE policy might also limit the upside for the pound.

Justin Lee

HK, Hong Kong

Posts: 16

15 years ago

Mar 27, 2009 3:50

In Thread: EURUSD and Oil

Thanks Ashraf! Get some insight from this analysis.

Justin Lee

HK, Hong Kong

Posts: 16

15 years ago

Mar 18, 2009 14:04

In Thread: EURUSD Heading to $1.33

Hi Ashraf,

It seems that right now only EUR keeps surging but other major currencies are only range trading or with a very mild upside only. Somehow it's strange with EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are doing so well when the equity market is turning to another rally.

Justin Lee

HK, Hong Kong

Posts: 16

15 years ago

Mar 7, 2009 12:53

In Thread: EURGBP Bullish Turn

Hi Ashraf,

I would like to add some comments. EUR/GBP Daily Chart is also supported by 95 SMA since Feb 2009, and as the momentum indicator MACD is crossing over, I agree that the pair will have an upside bias towards 0.95.

Besides, the QE implemented by BoE may prompt the pound more bearish against other major currencies as well, since the yield for the long Gilt may be suppressed and appears to underperform other major currencies.

Other GBP crosses are turning more bearish after the policy meeting. One thing to note that the upside for the GBP/AUD is capped by 100 SMA in daily chart and is likely to fall back to 2.17 next week.

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